Ain't no sunshine

  • By Artem V. Shamsutdinov
  • January 31st, 2023

In a few words as possible here is what I'm thinking about this seemingly far fetched scenario:

Scenarios

  1. Best case scenario - the whole thing goes off without a hitch, the populous is not alerted and we get another ~.5K of development and are not permantently stunted. I was immediately tempted into thinking that is no better solution to get over this that producing a mass disinformation campain. At least at first it looks like the only thing that would work is usage of mass media to achieve best effect of keeping orbit change as an experts only, near non-event: "Very slight changes, we are working on figuring it out, but in the mean time - Look! ... And how about them Rams?" - Just gotta be well thought out and believable. But after I've given it some tought I realize that the best thing to do is to say nothing and show that we can be "a man" of a civilization. Scientists are smart guys and will see if politicians are non-verbally showing the belief that we need more time to come out strong and stand on our own feet, with a lasting resolve to not give in or give up. I trully believe that if we are to survive long term we must be helping others not only to survive "in our parent's guest house" but also be ready to help others beyond the neighboorhood with a profession of our own choosing, instead of having the mentality of the poor child while we are growing up.
  2. Minor technical mess ups, mass exposure to superior capabilities left in recorded history
  3. Splitter group invasion, loss of human lives in millions
  4. Major technical mess-ups, very large tidal effects, loss if human lives in 10s-100s millions
  5. Total cluster, imminent tectonic movement, eventually reduction in surface land area and resulting permanent limit on total population below ability to regain fusion and interstellar travel

Likely scenarios 1 to 3

What can we do

  1. Show organization and unity - that reduces the overall level of stress on all sides and reduces chances of technical mess-ups on their side
  2. Be prepared for a splinter group invasion - large operations require major cooperation for many sides, number of parties capable of taking advantage of this is unknown (most likely not directly or at all related to the superior forces that will be performing the move, probably not the same civilization) - assuming around 100. That’s a lot of policing to do, chances of everything being fully controlled are not extremely high.

At the risk of coming through like a complete jerk who has no faith - I cannot help but think of the one precious resource that is available in space-ready form, owned by a non-major power. A power that is geographically isolated from all but it's northern neighbor and has been blessed with many mineral resources. A power that is spread out over a long strip of land where any primite retaliatory attack would only affect a limited part of it, while doing massive damage to the overall environment. A power that (God forbid) could (seamingly) be wiped out in a blink of an eye with a massive tsunami.

The worst is that I have no way of judging the likelihood of a bad actor scenario. Water and resources are not readily available on Venus but what type of organization would be willing to do massive (though perhaps arguably limited) damage to a child civilization? I pray that we all remember that human (in the greater sense of the word) life is above all price and must not be sacrificed. But we must be prepared to defend ourselves. Swiftly and decisively.

Family

Perhaps the most difficult scenario to deal with would be that of a small (in terms of an advanced civilization, perhaps around a million) group of colonists desperate to escape a tough situation (not willing to tough it out due to unbearable conditions of the situation, perhaps due to health related issues of their children). These could be backed by a battle hardened force with a position of moral superiority in their actions. In such a situation it will be critical for us to demonstrate that we are not the heartless savages they are likely expecting us to be. It will likely come down to field level decisions and I pray that our forces will put honor and integrity as the deciding factors in their actions.

Update 4/12 Having thought through that, here are my thoughts on how such scenarios can be stopped.

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