I never met nobody
The initial reflections on a possible scenario are leading me to the following train of thought:
The scenario of setting up a resource colony seems like the most likely one. This is probably the only way to ensure long term flow of resources. We ourselves have gone through a number of variants of extracting resources from colonies. All were and (and still, virtually are) bloody and placed us in an inferior (low ground) position. By far the most successful one took place in North America, with (God driven) migration of highly moral and highly motivated small groups of colonists (with families). A distant second is the Australian variant, with forced labor of convicts. These are most likely the two scenarios we are likely facing, in the overall splinter group scenario.
A decision center in a highly moral advanced civilization will most likely limit the success of the colonization based on outcomes in their (likely much longer) recorded history. My hunch is that the forced labor scenario is more likely but it is imossible to rule out a more impulsive scenario of a desperate group of colonists - mostly peaceful and well meaning civilians. Even with the convict scenario the quality of (non shock force) labor will be well above our general population due to (very highley likely) advanced correction technology and techniques - they (most likely) lagely wouldn't be hostile (again barring the shock force).
With the family groups scenario the likely outcome is the spread first across the continent and then possibly North (though that appears to be a defensible position). A total New World scenario is possible as well but is less likely due to lower moral grounds. Though disabling capability can be justified if a (relatively) peaceful group of colonists is wiped out in an initial retaliatory attack (may God forbid such a scenario - it doesn't take a general to understand that in such a course of events we have to show discipline and react symmetrically, prioritizing civilian life).
The scenario of a penal colony appears to be more manageble in the long term, with possible decolonization once the flow of resources is automated, agreed upon by locals, and properly supervised.
The next question then arises - what is the best way to avoid such scenarios. Given that the most logical reason for colonization is extraction of resources, perhaps a deal can be struck to supply the needed resources a la UAE scenario at first. Subsequently likely best outcome would be properly paced industrialization, a la late 20th century China, barring exessive centralization. My take is that the most important thing is to develop our own technological and industrial base, without being put on an external growth catalyst.
Taking this course of action could potentially be justified by the outcome of the blackout scenario, stating that we need to build space infrastructure (to explain the event and prepare for the future). Primarily a space elevator (at the easiest possible point - Galapagos), which will allow steady flow of resources first to orbit and then beyond.
As history has shown, large construction projects usually pay off. I would add that this should be done in a need-to-know way to prevent growth stunting (to allow development of our own technological base and winner mentality). This means that likely the only way to accomplish this is a (slow but steady) merger of global industrial capacities and organization of a self-defence force, a la orbital version of starfleet. Any ventures beyond Earth Orbit must be controlled until the next big move.
With this article I would like to finish writing on (and thinking deeply about) this topic - may the Lord help us if such a scenario takes place.
Do no war and no war will come to you
Is this a millennial exam we are to pass? Can we forego the end of the world (the end of light) if we demonstrate that we (institutionally) observe and follow the most important covenant of all? Will no Hell be brought down to us if we stop the hell we created ourselves?
The total darkness over the planet might be achieved artificially, perhaps synthetically by applying an electric charge to a reagent of some sort, that may or may not be present in the ionosphere (Update 5/10 Or maybe just deploying a semi-trasparent screen in the Sun-synchronous orbit (about 600-800 km or whatever works) big enough to block just the right amount of light without freezing the planet to death. Update 5/16 Or maybe deploying the EMF shield necessary to protect the planet from magnetic radiation). Perhaps if we show full control over the situation only the core moving will be done (without the likely concurrent resource extraction over Antarctica, especially if an expectation exists of a future resource extraction agreement - they don't necessarily need it now but now is the most convenient time to do quick, large scale extractions).
To put this in perspective, I remember watching a state television broadcast during the fall of the Soviet Union. They showed a sizable UFO over a large Siberian city. It was there long enough to make it to the national news. Funny thing, the reporters specifically stated: "Nobody is looking up.". The news show went on to more pressing issues, and didn't make a big deal of the situation.
Would there be more chaos in the streets if there was no light or warmth from the Sun for a week, or, if there was a faint outline of a nearly invisible (probably triangular as the bottom of a tetrahedron, with top used for refueling entry) shape overhead? Would we "Keep calm and carry on" if we were sufficiently prepared for the situation? Would we be able to let it all go and focus on technological advancement, instead of going all religious as a result of fear of the unknown in prolonged total darkness?
Would you show a scary thing to a child if that child showed the ability to control his emotions and think with a clear head?
Can the general population be trusted to follow the (likely) best course of action if it is sufficiently and properly prepared (and informed) ahead of time?
Update 7/30 I bet that I'm not the only one on the planet with an alike assessment:
The galagraphy around us is an order of magnitude more complex than the geography here on Earth. Many hundreds of light years worth of stars surround our relatively central location in the Galaxy. If we are to make an assumption that the galaxy has been continuously populated by sentient races for billions of years before us (up to now) then one could make some assumptions about how the power is distributed between various regional centers. I have absolutely no data to base this on but using my imagination gives me a picture in which there are 10 to 12 regional centers that control the bulk of the galaxy. From that I logically derive that there might be 3 to 4 higher order powers that make their presence known when necessary but mostly stay of the of the way in order not to stifle development of younger races that would otherwise be left powerless in the face of overwhelming (perhaps cross galactic) capabilities.
It is also logical to assume that the regional centers provide overall direction to more recent local centers and actively provide peace and order in their region. In my imagination these are the "grandfather" races. Likely the regional centers are mostly concerned with galactic matters and the local centers are in charge of bringing new-born races and organizing order between lesser (but already space faring) races. The local centers are "father" races in my mind. And all of the lesser races are "cousins" of various ages and productive capacities. And it appears logical to me that it takes time, LOTS of time, to move up the ladder on which we are not yet present.
Update 4/12 Now, if we could pull our heads out of our asses and start doing the right thing as one people what could we accomplish in the long term?
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